A good way to track CMBS loan losses is to track Appraisal Reduction Amounts (ARAs).
Recent figures from the Kroll Bond rating agency may therefore be revealing.
Kroll reported that 409 ARAs have been completed since the start of the year through November 2020 on CMBS 2.0 conduit transactions. For the year 2019, there were 111 ARA. Overall, the number for 2020 was 3.7 times higher.
Currently, there are $ 3.1 billion ARA outstanding among 442 loans. Unsurprisingly, more than three-quarters of ARAs in circulation by principal balance are collateralized by retail (54%) and accommodation (24%) assets.
Kroll says about half of the loans with ARAs made in YTD 2020 and 2019 appear to have been automatic. Excluding the automatic ARAs, more than 80% of the losses realized exceeded the ARAs initially carried out.
New York and Texas led the way with the two biggest ARA exhibits, at $ 566.7 million and $ 478 million, respectively. In total, they represent about a third of all ongoing ARAs.
The 10 transactions with the highest ARA exposures have cumulative ARA amounts ranging from 6.7% to 16.8% of their outstanding principal balance.
Kroll’s ARA figures come as other organizations warn of rising levels of distress.
CoStar Group expects a large scale of troubled sales to strike mid-2021. The company modeled 16 different scenarios to determine how severe the carnage would be from this recession. The amount of distress landed between $ 92 billion and $ 370 billion during these exercises, although it is likely to be $ 126 billion. “It’s quite a wide range,” explains Xiaojing Li, general manager of the CoStar group. “We think he [the amount of distress] could be a mixed scenario that falls somewhere in the middle.
In November, Trepp reported that delinquency rates over 30 days reached a record level of 10.3% in June 2020. Payment defaults in accommodation and retail trade rose to 24.3% and 18.1% respectively; highest ever for the CMBS industry.
Some companies are already anticipating a wave of distress.
Bayer Properties managed assets in the service during the global financial crisis. Executive Vice President of Operations Doug Schneider expects more opportunities to arise.
“In many ways I hate to see him come back, but there will be a need,” says Schneider. “We have previously demonstrated our ability to transform an asset from a provider position into a profitable sale, to the benefit of the seller, the buyer and, ultimately, the consumer and the community. It’s no secret that the United States is over-marketed, so we need to find alternative mixed uses for real estate that meet unmet demand.
Even relatively safe areas show cracks.
Trepp wanted for all multifamily loans private label deals, US CMBS, where the occupancy rate had fallen by more than 15% between 2019 and part of 2020. It found about fifty loans totaling nearly $ 1.5 billion in ‘in progress. This total represents around 3.8% of loans that have reported partial occupancy from the year 2020 so far.